After turning deadly in the Philippines, Typhoon Goni will turn northward and track near Taiwan this weekend before taking aim at Japan and South Korea.
Despite its center and worst of its fury raging just offshore, Typhoon Goni has claimed four lives in the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday.
The Associated Press reports that three of the deaths were the result of a landslide. Another man died after being pinned by a tree.
The mountain city of Baguio was inundated with more than 300 mm (nearly a foot) of rain from Thursday to Friday evening with more rain pouring down. Additional flooding and mudslides will remain a serious concern across Luzon even after Goni slowly departs to the north by Saturday.
While the torrential rain and strong winds wrapping around Goni's center will track northward, tropical downpours will continue to stream into western Luzon through at least early in the new week. The heaviest downpours can unleash 25 to 50 mm (1 to 2 inches) in a short period of time.
Flash flooding could eventually become an issue in the capital of Manila as the ground becomes saturated. An additional 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) with locally higher amounts of rain threatens to inundate the mountains this weekend into early next week, meaning some mountain locations in northwestern Luzon could receive overall rain totals of 600 mm (2 feet) or more.
Goni will then pass just east of Taiwan this weekend with its strength fluctuating between what is equivalent to a minimal Category 3 hurricane and a strong Category 2 hurricane. While landfall is not expected in Taiwan, the dangerous typhoon will track between 160 and 240 km (100 and 150 miles) from the coastline during its closest approach to the island nation.
Passing this close will result in wind gusts of 80 to 115 kph (50 to 70 mph) along the east coast. Wind gusts of 65 to 95 kph (40 to 60 mph) are expected in the mountains and northern Taiwan, including Taipei.
Rainfall of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) will be common from the western slopes of the mountains to the east coast and northern Taiwan. More than 300 mm (12 inches) threatens to trigger flooding and mudslides in the northern mountains, especially with the ground already saturated in the wake of once-Super Typhoon Soudelor.
On Sunday, the worst of Goni's impacts will shift into northern Taiwan and Japan's Ryukyu Islands. While northern Taiwan will be spared the worst of the storm, the Ryukyu Islands will not be as lucky.
The current path of Goni puts the islands of Yaeyama and Miyako at greatest risk of enduring the most life-threatening impacts during the second half of the weekend. Destructive winds in excess of 160 kph (100 mph), rainfall topping 250 mm (10 inches) and an inundating surf will target these islands.
How close Goni tracks after leaving these islands will determine if the dangerous conditions pass directly over or just west of the rest of the Ryukyu Islands Sunday night into Monday. Even if the worst of Goni remains just offshore, residents of the Ryukyu Islands from Okinawa northward should still prepare for damaging winds of 95 to 130 kph (60 to 80 mph) and rainfall of 75 to 150 mm (3 to 6 inches).
While mainland Japan will escape a blow from Typhoon Atsani, the same cannot be said for Goni early next week.
Conditions will deteriorate across western mainland Japan and South Korea on Monday before Goni barrels through with flooding rain and strong winds Monday night through Tuesday.
Goni will be a minimal typhoon as it arrives before weakening into a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Sea of Japan on Wednesday.
Along Goni's path, Japan's islands of Kyushu, Shikoku and southwest Honshu and southern and eastern South Korea are at risk for flooding rainfall of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) with localized amounts over 300 mm (12 inches). Damaging winds over 80 kph (50 mph) also threaten to howl.
"Near where Goni makes landfall, winds of 115 to 130 kph (70 to 80 mph) are possible," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. "Nagasaki is one place that should be on alert for a possible landfall."
Seas that are already increase due to swells propagating away from Atsani will further build and become dangerous as Goni approaches. An inundated storm surge is expected near and south of where Goni comes onshore.
Goni will weaken rapidly as it moves farther northwest into northeastern China and far southeastern Russia during the second half of next week. While there can be some localized flooding, damaging winds will no longer be a concern.
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