Travelore News: American Airlines Pulls 2025 Forecast On Travel Demand Worries From Trump Tariffs

American Airline pulled its 2025 financial forecast on Thursday, mirroring its peers, as growing consumer apprehension over an escalating trade war result in carriers facing a level of uncertainty not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic uncertainty can impact non-essential spending such as travel as consumers turn cautious amid fears of recession from Trump's fluctuating trade policies.

This has created fresh headache for major U.S. airlines, which just two months ago were riding a wave of strong travel demand.

American joined peers Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air to withdraw their annual forecasts, following similar moves by Delta Air and Frontier earlier this month.

United Airlines recently gave two different forecasts and factored in an economic recession into one of them, saying it was impossible to predict the macroeconomic environment this year. Shares of the carrier were down 1.3%, while peers Southwest and Alaska were down 4% and 7%, respectively. Delta and United shares were also down marginally.

American Airlines is also reeling with higher costs tied to expensive labor contracts signed last year.

It forecast its second-quarter adjusted profit per share in the range of 50 cents to $1, compared with analysts' expectations of 99 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG.

In the first quarter, it reported an adjusted loss of 59 cents per share, smaller than Wall Street expectations of 65 cents.

The airline reported a total operating revenue of $12.55 billion, down marginally from a year earlier.

Reporting by Shivansh Tiwary in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore, Reuters.

Canadian University Teachers Warned Against Traveling To The United States

The association that represents academic staff at Canadian universities is warning its members against non-essential travel to the United States.

The Canadian Association of University Teachers released updated travel advice Tuesday due to the “political landscape” created by President Donald Trump’s administration and reports of some Canadians encountering difficulties crossing the border.

The association says academics who are from countries that have tense diplomatic relations with the United States, or who have themselves expressed negative views about the Trump administration, should be particularly cautious about U.S. travel.

Its warning is particularly targeted to academics who identify as transgender or “whose research could be seen as being at odds with the position of the current U.S. administration.”

In addition, the association says academics should carefully consider what information they have, or need to have, on their electronic devices when crossing the border, and take actions to protect sensitive information.

Reports of foreigners being sent to detention or processing centers for more than seven days, including Canadian Jasmine Mooney, a pair of German tourists, and a backpacker from Wales, have been making headlines since Trump took office in January.

The Canadian government recently updated its U.S. travel advisory, warning residents they may face scrutiny from border guards and the possibility of detention if denied entry.

Crossings from Canada into the United States dropped by about 32%, or by 864,000 travelers, in March compared to the same month a year ago, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Many Canadians are furious about Trump’s annexation threats and trade war but also worried about entering the U.S.

David Robinson, executive director of the university teachers association, said that the warning is the first time his group has advised against non-essential U.S. travel in the 11 years he’s worked with them.

“It’s clear there’s been heightened scrutiny of people entering the United States, and … a heightened kind of political screening of people entering the country,” said Robinson, whose association represents 70,000 teachers, librarians, researchers, general staff and other academic professionals at 122 universities and colleges.

Robinson said the group made the decision after taking legal advice in recent weeks. He said lawyers told them that U.S. border searches can compromise confidential information obtained by academics during their research.

He said the association will keep the warning in place until it sees “the end of political screening, and there is more respect for confidential information on electronic devices.”

US Expected A Big Travel Year, But Overseas Visitors — Angered By Trump — Are Heading Elsewhere

Olja Ivanic looked forward to welcoming some cousins from Sweden to her Denver home in June. Ivanic and the four travelers were planning to go hiking in Colorado and then visit Los Angeles and San Francisco.

But then President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a February meeting at the White House. Ivanic’s four relatives immediately canceled their scheduled trip and decided to vacation in Europe instead.

“The way (Trump) treated a democratic president that’s in a war was beyond comprehensible to them,” said Ivanic, who is the U.S. CEO of Austria-based health startup Longevity Labs.

The U.S. tourism industry expected 2025 to be another good year in terms of foreign travelers. The number of international visitors to the United States jumped in 2024, and some forecasts predicted arrivals from abroad this year would reach pre-COVID levels.

But three months into the year, international arrivals are plummeting. Angered by Trumps’ tariffs and rhetoric, and alarmed by reports of tourists being arrested at the border, some citizens of other countries are staying away from the U.S. and choosing to travel elsewhere.

The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures Tuesday showing visits to the U.S. from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year. The figures did not include arrivals from Canada, which is scheduled to report tourism data later this week, or land crossings from Mexico. But air travel from Mexico dropped 23%.

For the January-March period, 7.1 million visitors entered the U.S. from overseas, 3.3% fewer than during the first three months of 2024.

The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which as recently as December anticipated the U.S. would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline.

Tourism Economics expects some of the steepest declines will be from Canada, where Trump’s repeated suggestion that the country should become the 51st state and tariffs on close trading partners have angered residents. Canada was the largest source of visitors to the U.S. in 2024, with more than 20.2 million, according to U.S. government data.

Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, a travel booking site, said leisure bookings to U.S. destinations were down 40% in March compared to the same month a year ago. Air Canada has reduced its schedule of spring flights to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona due to lack of demand.

The National Travel and Tourism Office gave a rosier forecast last month for international travel to the U.S. Based on 2024 travel patterns, the office said it expected arrivals to increase 6.5% to 77.1 million this year and surpass 2019 levels in 2026.

But Tourism Economics said the impact of the less favorable view of the U.S. from abroad could be severe enough that international visits won’t surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2029.

“The survey data is all indicating a significant mix of cancellations and a massive drop in intent to travel,” Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said.

Ian Urquhart, a professor emeritus at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada, was supposed to go to Las Vegas for five days in June and see Coldplay in concert. He canceled the trip to protest Trump’s “incredibly disparaging tone” toward Canada even though it meant losing a $500 deposit on the vacation package.

His oldest daughter similarly nixed a planned May trip to Sedona, Arizona, while his brother-in-law decided not to go on his usual weeklong golf trip to Scottsdale, Arizona, according to Urquhart.

“None of us jumped for joy when we made those decisions, but it seemed to be one of the few ways we could signal how we felt about the bullying that has been directed towards Canada by your president,” Urquhart said.

For Pepa Cuevas and her husband, who live in Madrid, Trump’s election in November was a turning point. The couple had planned to spend a month skiing in Colorado over the winter holidays. They went to Japan instead.

“Trump’s victory left us, especially me, very shocked,” Cuevas said. “For the moment, we have lost the desire to return. I don’t know what will happen in the future, but for the moment we are still shocked, and it doesn’t look like this is going to be resolved.”

According to the government data released Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Leisure trips by Chinese citizens to places like Disneyland, Hawaii and New York are decreasing dramatically and likely won’t pick up again until Trump has left office, said Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. He dubs it the “Trump Slump.”

That slump has financial consequences. Tourism Economics expects U.S. spending by international visitors to drop by $9 billion this year.

Marco Jahn is the president and CEO of New World Travel, a California company that works with overseas tour operators on vacation packages and activity planning. It arranges the hotels and rental cars for a family that wants to take a driving tour of U.S. national parks, for example.

Jahn said bookings have dropped between 20% and 50%, depending on the source market, over the last eight to 10 weeks. He notes particular declines from Scandinavia, where Trump’s repeated threat to take control of Greenland, a self-governing territory of NATO ally Denmark, has antagonized citizens.

“The U.S. is not perceived as a welcoming destination,” Jahn said.

Beyond, a revenue management platform for vacation rental owners, said Canadian searches for short-term rentals in the U.S. plunged 44% after Feb. 1, when Trump first announced a since-paused 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. Florida, Texas and New York were among the hardest-hit markets, Beyond said.

American Ring Travel, a tour operator based in California, offers carbon-neutral bus tours of the U.S. that often attract eco-conscious travelers from Europe, said Richard Groesz, the company’s director of contracting. But bookings from Germany flattened starting in January after Elon Musk threw his support behind a far-right political party in that country’s federal election, Groesz said.

There are other issues impacting foreign visits. The U.S. has been the top destination by country for Japanese tourists for years, but data compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting showed South Korea topped the U.S. in January.

The weak yen – not Trump – is likely the biggest factor dampening the attraction of the U.S., said Takaaki Mitamura, a spokesperson for Tokyo-based travel agent Veltra Corp. Travelers are picking destinations where the currency effect isn’t as big, like South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Australia, he said.

Haruka Atomiya, a Tokyo resident, visits Los Angeles at least once a year. Last year, she brought her young children for the first time and did a lot of research to find affordable places to stay. The exchange rate made some hotels double or triple the price she paid in the past.

Atomiya, who went to college in Vermont, has always loved the diversity and the freedom in the U.S. She said she doesn’t understand why Americans elected Trump, but doesn’t plan to stop visiting unless she senses any physical danger.

“If America changes in a way that’s clearly visible, that’s a reality, too, and I will likely keep visiting,” she said. “What will happen to America after Trump intrigues me.”

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